Three Core Variables Shaping H1 2025 Capital Markets
Looking back at H1 2025, global capital markets experienced the interplay of multiple variables. The monetary policy shift, AI industry transition from hype to earnings delivery, and intermittent geopolitical disruptions jointly shaped market patterns.
Monetary Policy Shift: Rate Cut Cycle Established
The most important macro variable in H1 was the formal establishment of the Fed rate cut cycle. Three cumulative rate cuts totaling 75 basis points marked a historic pivot from tightening to easing.
AI Industry: From Concept to Earnings
The AI industry completed the critical leap from hot concept to earnings delivery in H1 2025. NVIDIA, Microsoft and Google AI earnings continued to beat expectations, validating AI investment commercialization prospects.
